Going back to the article referenced above, the authors make it clear they are only measuring statistical probability, not causality. In all, five of the NFC’s top seven teams in turnover differential made the playoffs, while in the AFC, it was six of seven. The Patriots went 12-4 and won their division, while the Bears missed the playoffs but still turned in a 10-6 record - identical to the Redskins’ mark. Not surprisingly, that translated to success on the field for all three teams.

The result was a turnover differential of +17 for the season, which ranked third in the NFL after New England (+25) and Chicago (+20). Likewise, Haslett’s forces recovered 10 fumbles while the offense was losing only six. Still, you get the point - that Redskin defensive coordinator Jim Haslett was definitely onto something when he put turnovers at the top of his priority list when he took the job and again this spring when the team drafted a trio of defensive backs whose distinguishing characteristic is their ability to produce interceptions.Īltogether, the Redskins intercepted 21 passes in 2012 while having only eight of their own picked off. Having it expressed in such a manner may be only slightly less odious than having John Madden bellow it at the top of his lungs, complete with grunting noises and wild arm waving. This suggests a strong positive correlation between turnover differential and win percentage.” Or at least I didn’t have until I tried to make sense of this article, which attempts to quantify in numeric terms what common sense should already tell you - that the team that turns the ball over the fewest number of times in the course of a game or season tends to win more often than its more generous opponent.Īccording to the authors of this cheery little tome, “the correlation between winning percentage and turnover differential is equal to 0.646 (3SF).

Offhand, do you have any idea what the equation below represents? (And no coaching from the math majors in the group.)

Nfl turnover leaders